Sunday, February 28, 2016

How good is Arno Del Curto, HC Davos headcoach?

No hockey coach in Switzerland is as heavy discussed as Arno Del Curto from HC Davos. In these discussions I do notice mainly two camps: The befuddled lovers, admirers and the unfair haters. Also in the media there seems to be nothing in between but the media tends heavily to the uncritical admirers. Because I seem to be one of the guys without positive or negative emotions about this charismatic coach I guess it’s time for a more deep and objective analyses about Arno Del Curto. How good is he, what does he good and what does he not so good? Ok, I admit, also me I had a inner feeling about this coach. My inner feeling told me that he is a good coach and this on a scale „very bad, bad, average, good, very good, messiahs“. Let’ see whether I will change my not so factual based opinion about him after doing my „homework“, after this hopefully objective analyses.


First of all I have to explain what is a good coach. Of course, here already we can start the discussion but I stop this because it’s not the topic of this analyses. Just in a few words: A good coach is a coach who develops players, makes them better players. A good coach is when his teams play a type of hockey that attracts spectators and maybe even sponsors. A good coach is when he has better results than what you can expect from the existing player-roster and in the case of Arno Del Curto – because he is Mr. Everything in Davos – I also dig in deeper in terms of how good are the players he hires including import-players.

So let’s start with the non-factual element. Do Arno Del Curtos teams play an attractive style of hockey? This is up to your taste, do you like vanilla or chocolate? Well I have a very clear personal opinion on this. Yes, the way the HC Davos plays hockey is very attractive, I just love it. This is for me by far the best part of what Arno Del Curto offers as a coach. It’s just fun to watch the high-tempo, intense transition type of play! 10/10 points for this!

Next point. How good of a player-developer is Arno Del Curto? Do players develop better working with Arno Del Curto than they develop elsewhere? Of course we don’t have a clear answer to this because we never know how player X or Y would have developed in different circumstances. But there are some facts we have to face: Arno Del Curto usually manages to bring the best young (but not very young) hockey-players to Davos. He hires the key-players from the U20-nationalteams such as Genoni, Berra, Stoop, Sciaroni, Simion, Hofmann, Guerra (he hired him even before), later Walser. This is nothing special and has nothing to do with good scouting or something like that because all teams wanted to have these players but for some reason they did end in Davos (maybe because of the mystery aura Arno Del Curto can offer (and this would be a quality!) or maybe because of better offers than others (and this would mean thank you HC Davos “Kristall-Club”), probably it’s something in between. But again: All these young players were very well known and average fans would also have hired them. There are some unknown players what indicated good scouting (Corvi) and some average players nobody else wanted (Jung e.g.) but this result is very unspectacular, just average. I give him 5/10 for this. Do players develop better under Arno Del Curto than elsewhere? No, there are quite strong indications that this is not the case. Michel Riesen did more or less regress in Davos and a return to the NHL was never really discussed anymore. The normal expectation of U20-Nationalteam-keyplayers is that they develop into good NLA-players when they become 24, 25 years old with some of them will be forces even in the senior-nationalteam. And this is exactly what more or less happened with these players in Davos, they became good NLA-players but this is nothing unexpected exceptional and definitely nothing outstanding. Another fact to this: Not even one actual Swiss NHL-player did go through schooling of Arno Del Curto (Niederreiter did work just a couple of weeks with Arno Del Curto and the credit of Jonas Hiller and Reto Berra goes more to the goalie-coach Marcel Kull. To be fair: The credit to Arno Del Curto is that he hired Marcel Kull). Also the home-grown Davos players such as Dino Wieser, Marc Wieser, Simon Kindschi did develop more or less as expected, nothing spectacular. In the case of Marc Wieser I even have to tell that he did take his huge development-steps in his time in Biel… So, putting this all together there is definitely not a spectacular record in terms of player-development, it’s pretty much average, as expected. I give him 6/10... could easily be 5/10.

Arno Del Curto is also always responsible in hiring the import-players. How good is he in this? My definition of a good import-player: The player receives a contract-extension after the initial contract or he got a better contract in another Swiss A-team, the KHL or the NHL and succeeded there. I do list all import-players I did find in alphabetical order with maybe the one or the other mistake, means gives “just” the big picture. I did not include the NHL-lockout-players:

Oscar Ackeström, Dick Axelsson, Jaroslav Bednar, Vaclav Benak, Lonny Bohonos, Brian Bonin, Pavel Brendl, Jan Brejcak, Alexandre Daigle, Radek Dvorak, Niklas Danielsson, Todd Elik, Johan Fransson, Radek Hamr, Brett Hauer, Jonas Höglund, Zbynek Irgl, Lee Jinman, Patrik Juhlin, Ville Koistinen, Juraj Kolnik, Zdenek Kutlak, Erik Laundry, Mike Maneluk, Kevin Miller, Janne Niskala, Ryan O’Connor, Perttu Lindgren, Josef Marha, Janne Niinimaa, Pärssinen, Paulsson, Niklas Persson,  Alexandre Picard, Vojtek Polak,  Tyler Redenbach, Barry Richter, Yves Sarault, Petr Sejna, Devin Setoguchi, Eero Somervuori, Ahren Spylo, Petr Sykora, Petr Taticek, Vaclav Varada, Erik Westrum, Daniel Widing, Shane Willis, Landon Wilson

You can judge by yourself what players left a lasting impression in your mind, what players you really did like. Of course, this is a bit of a subjective measurement but still: If we look at this list and compare with import-players in other teams I give him 7/10, he is definitely better than average in this category but also clearly not outstanding.

The team-results: Are the HC Davos-results better with Arno Del Curto than what you could expect looking at the team-rosters? The facts: Since 1996 he did win 6 championships plus 3 runner-ups. This is definitely a good or even a very good result on first sight. How good were the rosters in all these succesful years? In 2002 he had Weibel, Hiller, Forster, Gianola, Jan Von Arx, Ambühl, Patrik Fischer, Reto Von Arx und Michel Riesen. This roster was simply the best in this year, favorit to win the Championship and he delivered. Good job but not really unexpected outstanding. 2005 was the NHL-lockout-year with Nash, Thornton and Hagman. Looking at the roster: HCD was the clear favourite and Arno did deliver. Good job but not really unexpected outstanding. 2007 still with brothers Von Arx in their prime with some decent additions (Baumann, Guggisberg, Winkler), did win again. Not the clear favourite but one of the contenders. Did win, very good job. 2009 with the additions of Grossmann, Stoop, Bürgler, Della Rossa again one of the contenders. Did win, very good job, did win as a contender but not as the clear favourite. In 2011 again some key-transfers with Back, Ramholt, Joggi, Tallarini, Sciaroni. Definitely a contender but maybe not the clear favourite. Did win, very good job. In 2015 Davos benefitted from the transfer everybody else also wanted to realise. Andres Ambühl, in addition they had Walser, Hofmann, Simion, Du Bois, great but probably not cheap players… Still not the clear favourite because of the ZSC Lions, but definitely again one of the contenders on paper. Did win, very good job. On the downside there were years in between with not so good success. Especially between 2012 and 2014 the HC Davos results were in average worse than what could have been expected from their rosters. My mark to all this: 8/10 very good but not exceptional.


International results:
I do exclude all the Spengler-Cups from this (by the way I love the Spengler Cup!) because it’s always a tournament with too many extra-players here and there and you never really know how serious the games are played in terms of results.

I do remember Arno Del Curto very well in various interviews where he declared international success as the most important target. Many years back – unfortunately I can’t remember the exact year and the team they played – he declared a game in the then called “Europacup of the Champions” as the ultimate target of the season and Davos quite badly lost. It was in the Czech Republic or Sweden, I can’t really remember, sorry. Fail, maybe he did overrate Swiss hockey at this time or he just failed. Not a good job. Years later there was the ultimate match-up vs the Chicago Blackhawks in Zurich. Arno Del Curto declared this game as the most important of the season and he wanted to show the NHL how good his team is. It was a desaster, 2-9. The game strategy was very naive, Davos wanted to beat this brilliant NHL-team with speed, intensity and skills… common… Badly failed, Arno Del Curto, it was an embarassing Swiss hockey-moment but also probably the birth of the ZSC-Lions miracle-win vs Chicago just one or two days later… This year we had the Champions Hockey League and it was the ultimate dream of Arno Del Curto to win this pot. Davos played really well in this competition and did do so as the only Swiss team. Respect, quite well done but not in the final and not winning the pot. A good but not a very good and not an outstanding result. For international success I give Arno Del Curto 5/10 – and if it would be not this good Champions-Hockey-League-season 15/16 it would be a 3/10. To be fair: This international success-mark is based on just a couple of games and of course on very thin ice, but still.

Putting everything together in one basket. What is my conclusion? Did this analyses change my inner feeling? You might remember: My inner feeling did tell me that Arno Del Curto is a good coach.

My final conclusion:
Arno Del Curto is a good to very good coach, something in between. According to my analyses he is slightly better than my inner feeling indicated. Between good and very good means clearly better than average but it also means not very good and also quite far away from outstanding and definitely not a messiahs!

What about his personality? I don’t know really, I don’t know him personally but there are some indications that he is a very sensitive person with a pretty thin skin and this leads sometimes to the one and the other irritating comments in critical media-inverviews. After so many years as the undisputed Zar of Davos I also noticed some diva-like behaviours. He also tries to make much play with his charisma, tries to show too much that he is a rebel and unique. But that’s ok, he is a salesman and yes, to be a good salesman is part of the game if you want to have good contracts and who doesn’t want to have this? And yes, he is charismatic but charismatic has nothing to do with good or bad but we have the tendency to vastly overrate charismatic people and underrate humble, low key personalities.


In the very end maybe my most important sentence once again: It’s just fun to watch games of the HC Davos. Thank you Arno Del Curto for this entertaining part of your coaching!

Horgen, 28th February 2016 / Thomas Roost

Sunday, February 7, 2016

Arriving in the NHL - What to expect and how to prepare: Part 3 - Goalies

Is a goalie worth 50% of a team, is he the so called Mr. 50%? Is the goalie by far the most important player in a team? I tell twice no. In the tendency the importance of certain goalies is a bit overrated. Is the goalie an important player? Yes, yes, yes! Let me explain my still a bit unpopular opinion: Goalie-performances in single games are in deed extremely important but this is different from the importance of certain goalies…. Hmmm, I try to explain again: I know not a single goalie on this planet who doesn’t have excellent, good, average and below average stretches during a long season. So, even if you have Carey Price of Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes comes playoff-time, you never know for sure what kind of performance you will get out of them. Will they be hot? You pray to god that they are… but you can’t know this. On the other side you might face the franchises No4-goalie because of injuries, illnesses or other reasons and you might hope that this goes to your advantage. But the truth is that there is always a chance that this no-name No4-goalie will outperform your star-goalie in a certain playoff-series. So again: There is a significant difference between the importance of a goalie-performance and connecting this with a certain name, a certain goalie. This comes because there are just 30 No1-NHL-goalie-jobs on this planet but maybe close to 100 excellent goalies on this planet. If you take also the best goalies in European leagues then we soon will have 120 excellent goalies. Whether this worldwide improvement in goalie-quality is because of bigger equipment or better goalie-education is up to debate. Probably it’s both. This is bad news for goalies in contract-negotiations because if the goalie wants too much money the smart GM simply goes for the next one and the chance is big that this next one has a very similar quality than the one who wants too much money. All this means that as a GM you never should feel too much pressure to sign this or that goalie, in the tendency the market-value of goalies is going down and this is – believe it or not – because the worldwide goalie-quality did improve so much lately that the market nowadays offers to many good goalies for not enough demand. Examples from this season: Did you notice any significant change in team-performances with the Winnipeg Jets? They lately played with their No3-goalie but they even have slightly better results. Any significant ZSC-result-changes? Their No1-goalie Lukas Flüeler is out for long stretches, the No2, Niklas Schlegel, did take over and sometimes even their No3, 4 and 5-goalie plays… and I can’t find a real difference in the team’s win/lose-ratio. The same goes for SCB with the change from “no name” Schwendener to import-goalie Stepanek. Again, this doesn’t mean that Lukas Flüeler - or in the case of the Winnipeg Jets Ondrej Pavelec - are not important players but please also don’t get fooled, don’t overrate their influence.

The plays of the modern NHL-goalies:
What we have to know about modern NHL-goaltending is that if you are relying on your reaction time to make saves you are out in a hurry. Fast reflexes are highly overrated. Modern NHL-goaltending is mostly about intuition, reading the game and geometry. You are watching the puck-carrier, quickly analysing all of the guy’s options, looking at his feet, hands, eyes and body-positioning and then take the decision for what kind of action you will be prepared. Most of the goalies work has to be done before the shot even comes! Again, if you are relying on your reflexes, on your reaction-time: You are toast! So you have to study opposing shooters, as a goalie you have to be a life-long student. Connor Hellebuyck tells that he always was a diehard fan and just loved to watch and study all the goalies and shooters. He was and is a goalie, a fan and a student at the same time. One of the first findings in Hellebuyck’s studies was that most goals are going in when goalies were deep. So he started to develop a system to stay a bit out more than others. Modern NHL-goalies rely mostly on positioning and taking away as much open space as possible.

Basically a modern NHL-goalie is big and fast. Goalies smaller than 183cm are most likely not get drafted in the NHL. Average size of drafted goalies for the NHL is very close to 190cm. They are athletic monsters, lean and agile and cover a lot of the net even before they put the gear on. The NHL will likely shrink the pants and the arm-pads in the near future and this will have a bigger impact than when they reduced the length of the pads. Where will this size-hype end? In theory we are looking for goalies who are more wide than tall ;-) . 


Smaller goalies also can look bigger if they use the shoulders to their advantage. Smaller goalies need to be absolutely sensational in all other aspects if they want to have a chance to become an NHL-goalie. The only young smaller goalie I can think of becoming a small chance to play as a No1 in the NHL is Nashville’s Juuse Saros, the actual No3 or 4 in the Predators depth-chart. In addition to be big you also need to be a very good athlet and be fast with your movements. Especially lateral movement is really important and this because of the already discussed top snipers who can change shooting angles in a split-second. Coming back to one of the best young NHL-goalies:

Connor Hellebuyck
The biggest honour for a goalie is if you call him big and boring and this exactly is Connor Hellebuyck. If you watch Hellebuyck just follow his state of the art positioning, a real beauty! In the end everything looks pretty easy and all this comes from his positioning. His saves then look pretty easy but they are relatively easy because of his high-end positioning and reading the plays.
Connor Hellebuyck

Jonathan Quick
Jonathan Quick is a very athletic goalie and is very explosive from side to side and in the splits. Please also watch how he likes to position himself extremely low. This position allows him too see better through sticks and legs. He also spends a lot of time sitting in a complete butterfly split. With this strategy he can deal better with all the deflected pucks

Henrik Lundqvist
Henrik Lundqvist  is less athletic than Jonathan Quick but he is standing very tall and wide during games. He definitely looks bigger in the net than he is. He also reads the plays unbelievable well, anticipation is second to none and watch how his body positioning is still under perfect control while moving. In addition his ability to be “square” to the shooter is also something to watch, to study in the plays of Henrik Lundqvist. Unlike Helleybuck he is a goalie who plays a bit more deep in the net.
 
Henrik Lundqvist
Carey Price
Price is extremely economical and precise in his movements and watch how well he handles the puck. He also is very quick moving laterally. Like Helleybuck nothing looks really spectacular if you watch Price and this is a strength and not a weakness.


Braden Holtby
Holtby is the hottest NHL-goalie at this point. Like Carey Price he is very mechanical and precise with his movements and shows excellent angle-plays. In addition his butterfly-technique is state of the art with just very few holes while still maintaining an upright posture and good balance. He also usually shows excellent stick-positioning and I also love his rebound-control.

I really recommend you to study these goalies in all the mentioned aspects and much more. Also study the snipers, how they usuallay act in what situations. This study allows you to read and anticipate the game much better and reading the game is most important in modern NHL-goalies life because – as I mentioned earlier: If you rely on your reflexes as an NHL-goalie you will be out of the game very fast.

This 3-part-column contains quotes from Mark Streit, Jonathan Quick, James Neal, Connor Hellebuyck, Kevin Shattenkirk, Andrew Berkshire, Drew Doughty, Scott Stevens, Patrick Kearns, Bernd Freimüller, Anthony Weiner and Logan Couture. Thank you!


Horgen, 7th February 2016 / Thomas Roost