Russia is World Champion in 2012 and impressed us with
spectacular plays and goals. The Russian players confirmed to be the most
skilled with a high-end entertaining factor. Russia did win all games and
dominated this tournament. I always admired their stylish style, their skills
and their magic... and I still do. Russia has high-end forwards in their prime
with Malkin, Ovechkin and still Datsyuk and will come along with high-end very
young forwards (Kuznetsov, Tarasenko, Yakupov and maybe Grigorenko). What does
this World Cup dominance tell us? Is Russia No.1 favorite for the next Olympics
in Sochi? How good is the KHL? How healthy is Russian junior-hockey? What can
we expect from this great hockey-country in the next couple of years?
What
does this World Cup dominance tell us?
Russia still produces high-end individual players who
can make the difference in tight games. When all these high-end players are
healthy and available they have so much offensive skills to be able to destroy
any defense. When these Russian superstar forwards are „hot“ they are extremely
difficult to stop. Good news for Canada, USA, Sweden and others: They are not
always „hot“. Not only we, especially also Russian people show sometimes
mysterious personalities, they are sometimes moody. Means this is just mysterious
for us in Western Europe and in North-America. We don’t and never will fully
understand the deep Russian soul... and I know what I’m talking about. I’m
married with a sweet Russian lady and to be honest: I didn’t find the last key
to the Russian soul yet and I probably never will. I guess a lot of Russians
themselves never find the last key to their soul also... and all these
mysteries you can find sometimes with Russian hockeyplayers also on the ice. Even
Switzerland can beat Russia on one of these strange Russian nights but at the
same time Russia still could beat Switzerland 8-1 or so when they put the
trigger to „on“ and play fully concentrated the whole 60minutes. Russia is the
least predictable team in world-hockey, they are still good enough for the very
best but also strange enough for really bad games.
Is
Russia No.1 favorite for the Olympics in Sochi?
No, I don’t think so. This doesn’t mean that they
don’t have a chance to win as I explained above, but in my eyes it’s rather
unlikely. Reasons why: Russia doesn’t have high-end dmen and still lacks top
level in the game without the puck. Not to forget the top-level competition
they will face: Canada, USA and Sweden will also have unbelievable good teams
playing in the Olympics. I guess Russia is on top together with Canada in terms
of forwards (Malkin, Ovechkin, Datsyuk, Semin e.g.). These players are as good
but not better than Crosby, Stamkos, Tavares, Giroux. In terms of defense in my
eyes Canada, Sweden and USA are better, at least on paper. Sweden and the US are not quite on the
Russian forward-level but also not very far away. Both have the chance to beat
Russia because of better defense. It’s unfair to tell that the Russian defense
is not good, actually it is good but the question we have to answer here is:
Are e.g. Nikulin/Kalinin as good as Weber/Pietrangelo or Karlsson/Lidstrom? We
would make big mistakes to judge Russian opponents with what we have seen in
the World Championship 2012. Canada, the USA and Sweden did invite more or less
U25-teams and didn’t show up with their best possible players by far. Sweden
e.g. faced 21! rejections from basically invited players. Putting all these “Olympic”
puzzle-pieces together I would say Russia will be there as the most dangerous
underdog but not as the favorite. I guess Canada will be favorite No.1, the US
and Sweden are right there, just a bit below and Russia is the mystery with
good outsider-chances. Also Russia has some additional potential super players
(e.g. Kovalchuk) but by far not as many as Canada, the USA and also Sweden has.
Russia was 90% complete with their “Olympic” roster in this year’s WC. Canada,
Sweden and the USA were there just with about 50% at best of their final
Olympic roster.
How
good is the KHL?
The KHL is the second best league in the World and in
the meantime a great alternative for good NHL-players, especially a very good
negotiating asset if an average NHLer asks for more money. With a KHL-offer he
– respectively his agent – can put pressure into the negotiating-process. In
addition: What were the best recall-players in the past are well paid KHLers
today. Dozens of really good Scandinavian players enrich the KHL. The KHL is
trying very hard to close the gap to the NHL and the KHL has money. I don’t
want to discuss whether this is healthy or not healthy money, this would lead
to another dimension of the discussion. If you ask the players, a majority will
tell that the KHL in many aspects is still quite far away from the NHL but the
improvements are noticeable and fast. The KHL did copy a lot of the NHL-rules
in terms of drafts and trades and is dynamically trying to expand into other
European countries. There are some questionmarks in terms of basic stability.
How strong are the economical and technical fundamentals of the KHL?
How
healthy is Russian junior-hockey?
Russian junior-hockey is not as good as it was in
their best years and decade. Since maybe two or three years Canada, the USA and
Sweden did overtake the Russian U18- and U20-teams. However, Russia still is
able to produce some major upsets from time to time but to tell the realistic
and modest truth: Right now they are No.4 on a junior-level and lately also
Finland makes pressure for this spot. I don’t have first-hand information but
my second hand information also tell me that the relation between the KHL and
the Russian Hockey Federation is not always easy and that the junior-programs
suffer from this. I also notice some sort of small fight between the Russian transfer-rules
and the junior-player-agents. Junior-players have to sign pretty early contracts
what means they have to stay (too) long in Russia. Some players and their
agents don’t agree with this formal chains and this leads to a “exodus” of very
young players (age 14-17) to North America or other countries. I even had
serious inquiries from Russian agents in terms of bringing very young Russian
kids to Switzerland. Basically I still think they have excellent teachers of
basic technical hockey-education but Russia is still on their sometimes painful
way to settle down from the huge political change since the old Sowjet times
and this change also effected and still effects the junior-hockey-program. In
the meantime they seem to have the money to come back very strong. What is now
still missing a little bit are stable structures, stable rules and a more
relaxed and composed relation and empathy to the NHL and Western European
countries. But they learn and they learn fast. Still…sometimes… the mystery of
the Russian soul… Of course, it’s also the other way round. Also we have to
improve our empathy to Russian souls and also we have to and do learn from
them.
What
can we expect from this great hockey-country in the next couple of years?
Surprises. Suprises for the good and bad, this is what
I do expect in the near future from Russian hockey. They still have so many
great offensive individual players with exceptional skills that on a given
night they can beat anybody. But I judge them as not stable enough to also lose
some very surprising games vs clear underdogs. The lack of high-end d-men,
especially high-end defense d-men doesn’t help. As I mentioned before, the
Russians still seem to have great teachers and coaches in terms of basic
hockey-techniques (skating, skills). What is still lacking sometimes are
high-end game-plans – because they might think that they will win with better
skills anyway - , individual tactical skills and discipline in terms of playing
more efficient without the puck, especially in the d-zone. Maybe they should
put this on their priority-list in education-programs. Maybe these rather
unspectacular skills fit better to Swiss or German mentalities, I don’t know
this for sure. Again, the mystery of the Russian soul…Anyway: I’m looking forward
to many more magic Russian hockey nights but to be honest: I also do expect a
lot of tears.
Now I’m awaiting some interesting opinions about this
analyses, maybe even from some of my friends in Russia?
22nd May 2012 /
Thomas Roost RussiaSochiMay12Neu1.doc
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