A big THANK YOU to the hockey community!

Today in Switzerland we celebrate the first national Ice-Hockey-Day. This day offers me a great opportunity to look back to my so far hockey-life, to tell THANK YOU to the world of hockey!

THANK YOU to the NHL to allow me, as scout, being a tiny little piece of this world-greatest hockey-cake, the No.1-league in the world, the NHL. You can’t know how happy and proud I am.

THANK YOU to Tyler Seguin, Patrick Kane, Jason Spezza, Henrik Zetterberg, Rick Nash, Joe Thornton and Patrice Bergeron for showing up in our Swiss league. Your magic moments will be unforgettable, THANK YOU for your state of the art-hockey!

THANK YOU to Brooks Laich for showing our players that it’s possible to become a great hockey-player even without high-end classical talent but great attitude, work-ethic and a high-end personality

THANK YOU to all NHL-lockout-players in Switzerland to show our Swiss players and our hockey writers that there is still a (too) big gap between the best in the world and the best players in Switzerland. THANK YOU for flashing our eyes, brains and hockey-hearts! 

THANK YOU to all Swiss background people who managed to find the extra money for these great lockout-players with their priceless magic.

THANK YOU to Sidney Crosby for not only being the No.1-hockey-player in the world but also a great and bright personality. THANK YOU for being our great ambassador for the game of hockey!

THANK YOU to Hockey Canada for eating, breathing and drinking hockey all the time and everywhere, THANK YOU to Canada for being our all role model when it comes to hockey!

THANK YOU to the Russian hockey-culture for cultivating such a high-end artist-style of hockey, thank you Russia for „producing“ players like Evgeni Malkin, Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeni Kuznetsov, Vladimir Tarasenko and Nail Yakupov.

THANK YOU to Sweden and to the US-hockey development program for showing to the hockey-world that excellent programs and excellent educators lead to the top of the world.

THANK YOU to Finland to show us in Switzerland that also a small population country can become world class in hockey. THANK YOU to Finland for being a real hockey-country.

THANK YOU for Czech/Slovak great hockey-moments and hockey-brains, although they happened mostly in the past but I guess they will be back to the top again in a couple of years.

THANK YOU to all the Swiss hockey-guys who did manage to implement our junior-program what resulted in a stable Top10 world-ranking. THANK YOU to all Swiss hockey guys who will help to improve our hockey in the future.

THANK YOU to the German Hockey Federation to invite me for presentations about my „scouting-wisdoms“ and THANK YOU for the German Hockey Federation backoffice-people who are always very helpful!

THANK YOU for hockey-friendships all over the world, priceless!

THANK YOU for allowing me to learn about such great hockey-books as e.g.:

Finnie Walsh (it comes from the very deep soul of hockey).

Talent is overrated (a must read for every junior player who wants to become a pro)

Moneyball,  (ok, it’s baseball but still should be a bible for all hockey executives with small budgets).

Hockey Tough, another must read-book for hockeyplayers.

THANK YOU to Göran Stubb for offering me my first NHL-scouting-contract in 1996 and trusting me since then year after year. THANK YOU Göran for being such an honest, big hearted and smart gentleman, a real hockey-man with great experience and tons of funny anecdotes.

THANK YOU to the NHL, for creating such a great league with all the best hockey-players all over the world. THANK YOU to the great North American sports-culture for  running such clever ruled leagues with drafts, trades and salary-caps. Thank you for this wise contrast to the European Pro-Sport-Leagues where basically just money talks. THANK YOU  to the NHL, the most clever hockey-league in the world.

THANK YOU to the powerful SC Bern franchise for allowing me to be their consultant from 2008 - 2011 and celebrating their last championship with them in 2010.

THANK YOU to the EHC Biel franchise for allowing me to be their consultant from 2010 – 2013 and celebrating with them their first playoff-birth since 19 years in 2012. THANK YOU to Daniel Villard, Kevin Schläpfer, Sandro Wyssbrod and Martin „Stoney“ Steinegger, all of them: Really smart hockey-guys from Biel, everybody in it’s own way.

Last but not least: MY BIGGEST THANK YOU goes to the worldwide thousands of  Junior-Hockey-Coaches who spend endless hours in small rinks with teaching children to play hockey. They never sip from the glamour-spotlight and they get just very small money. They do this just for the love of the world’s greatest game, the game of hockey! Respect!

Did you know that Patrick Kane...

-       grew up in a family with season tickets to the Buffalo Sabres?

-       did like to wear enemy sweaters in the hockey-arenas even though he also did cheer for the Sabres?

-       did start to play hockey at age seven?

-       as a boy he once played in seven different teams in just a year?

-       did win the following individual awards:

OHL-All-Rookie-Team 2007

OHL-First-All-Star-Team 2007

OHL Rookie of the Year 2007

Canadian Major Junior First All-Star-Team 2007

Canadian Major Junior Rookie of the Year 2007

NHL All Rookie Team 2008

NHL Calder Memorial Trophy 2008

NHL First All-Star Team 2010

Played in NHL All-Star-Games 2009, 2011, 2012

-       is not always an angel off the ice?

-       did score 145 points in just 58 games in the OHL in the season 06/07?

-       in his time in Major Junior quite often was on the power play for the full two minutes?

-       was told by former Chicago Black Hawks GM, Dale Tallon – now GM with the Florida Panthers – more than a month before the draft that he will take him first overall?

Zurich, 28th October 2012 / Thomas Roost

Die Schwierigkeit, in der NHL Nr.1-Goalie zu werden und zu bleiben

Zur Einführung einige grundsätzliche Anmerkungen zu Goalie-Statistiken: Statistiken bei Goalies aus z.B. nur 5-10 Spielen sind wenig bis nicht aussagekräftig, es müssen mindestens 20 Spiele sein, besser noch mehr. Die Save-Percentage-Statistik ist die wichtigste Goaliestatistik, allerdings muss man auch diese relativieren denn es macht einen Unterschied ob ein Goalie in einem Team mit einer guten Defensivstruktur spielt oder nicht. Sehr aussagekräftig sind Save-Percentage-Vergleiche von Goalies innerhalb desselben Teams; dies aber auch wiederum nur wenn eine Mindestanzahl von 20 Spielen der Statistik zugrunde liegen – pro Goalie, versteht sich. Goaliestatistiken z.B. aus nur zwei WM-Wochen oder nach nur wenigen Spielen in einer neuen Saison darf man nicht allzu ernst nehmen, sie werden von Teilen der Medien überbewertet. Speziell junge Goalies tendieren dazu, vor allem in einer Anfangseuphorie zu brillieren. Ihre gewieften Agenten nutzen dann die Gunst der Stunde und versuchen, ihre Klienten bei den Teamverantwortlichen über Wert zu verkaufen. In Nordamerika ist man bei einem jungen Goalie sogar skeptisch auch wenn er eine gesamte Saison sehr gut gespielt hat – man spricht dort von den so genannten „One Year Wonders“. D.h. in Nordamerika steigt ein Goalie in der Hierarchie erst nachhaltig wenn er in zwei aufeinanderfolgenden Saisons konstant gute Leistungen abgeliefert hat. Wenn in diesen zwei Saisons Playoff-Spiele fehlen, ist man selbst dann noch skeptisch. Jetzt habe ich mich aber leicht vom Thema entfernt. Kehren wir zurück zur Schwierigkeit, Nr.1-NHL-Goalie zu werden und zu bleiben. 

Auffällig, dass sich die ab mindestens 20 Spielen pro Saison aussagekräftige Savepercentage-Statistik der Goalies innert der letzten 10 Jahre im Durchschnitt markant verbessert hat. Die Fakten: Die durchschnittliche Save-Percentage in der NHL im Jahr 2005 lag bei 90.2% und hat sich dann kontinuierlich 
gesteigert auf 91.3% im Jahr 2012. Danke an dieser Stelle dem „Researcher“ Eric T. Die Frage stellt sich nun: Warum? Eine vertiefte Analyse ergibt folgende Zusatzfakten: Die Distanz der Schüsse und die Winkel aus dem die Schüsse abgefeuert werden haben sich kaum verändert. Dies bedeutet, dass diese verbesserte Save-Percentage nicht darin begründet liegt, dass die Schüsse aus weniger gefährlichen Positionen abgefeuert werden. Dies wiederum bedeutet, dass entweder die Schussqualität abgenommen oder die Goaliequalität zugenommen hat. Die These ist naheliegend, dass die Goaliequalität zugenommen hat. Die Detailanalyse von Eric T. hat zudem ergeben, dass sich diejenigen Goalies die bereits 2005 spielten  - und heute noch immer im NHL-Tor stehen - im Durchschnitt nicht verbessert haben. Die neuen Goalies, die im Verlaufe dieser Jahre dazugestossen sind, haben den Gesamtdurchschnitt der Save-Percentage deutlich nach oben verschoben. In der Saison 2005/2006 waren Martin Gerber, Alex Auld, Marc Denis, Davis Aebischer, Robert Esche, Antero Niittymaki, Mathieu Garon und John Grahame so genannte „Starting-Goalies“. Im Verlauf der Jahre wurden diese Goalies durch Namen wie Carey Price, Jaroslav Halak, Jonathan Quick, Jimmy Howard, Jonas Hiller und Pekka Rinne ersetzt. Der langen Worte kurzer Sinn: Die alten Goalies sind nicht besser geworden – auch nicht schlechter wie die Statistik zeigt – aber die neuen, welche gewisse alte Namen verdrängt haben, sind spürbar besser als die bisherigen Goalies.  Es gibt in der internationalen Perspektive sehr viele gute junge Goalies…aber leider pro NHL-Franchise nur zwei Arbeitsplätze und jetzt sind wir bereits beim im Titel angesprochenen Problem. Auch für sehr gute junge Goalies ist es heute extrem schwierig, sich eine Nr.1-Position in der NHL zu erkämpfen. Die Konkurrenz ist enorm. Etwas überspitzt ausgedrückt soll sich heute jeder Nr.1-Goalie in einer einigermassen kompetitiven und monetär attraktiven Liga zweimal überlegen bevor er die Liga oder sogar den Club wechselt. Er muss damit rechnen, dass er in einem neuen Umfeld mit hochkarätiger Konkurrenz um den einen Platz kämpfen muss. Selbst in Europa gibt es immer weniger Franchises mit nur einem guten Goalie, in Nordamerika schon gar nicht. Interessant vielleicht auch diese Schlussfolgerung: Man soll einem guten Goalie nicht überlange Verträge offerieren denn die guten Goalies bleiben zwar viele Jahre konstant in ihrer Save-Percentage aber die jüngere Nachfolgegeneration wird besser. D.h. ein heute guter Goalie der sein Niveau zwar in den nächsten 10 Jahren halten kann ist in 5 Jahren vermutlich im Konkurrenzvergleich nur noch ein mittelmässiger und in 10 Jahren vielleicht sogar bereits ein schwacher Goalie. Für die einzelnen Franchises ist es ratsam, vertieftes Goaliescouting zu betreiben, vor allem bei der jüngeren Generation und dies obwohl Goaliescouting generell der schwierigste Teil im Hockey-Scouting ist. D.h. die Fehlerquote der Vorhersagen liegt beim Goaliescouting deutlich über der Fehlerquote für die Stürmer und Verteidiger. Auch die Goaliestil-Frage wird alle paar Jahre wieder neu definiert. Von den ehemaligen Standup-Goalies sind kaum mehr welche übrig geblieben. Der Trend ging eindeutig in Richtung Butterfly. Aber auch die reinen Butterfly-Goalies sind ein Auslaufmodell, heute tendiert die Richtung in so genannte Hybrid-Goalies. Goalies deren Stil man nicht mehr so einfach schubladisieren kann, so eine Art Mischung aus Stand-Up und Butterfly.

Die Diskussion sei eröffnet.

Thomas Roost, 10.10.2012 Nr1Goalie.docx                                                                                               














Robin Lehner

Did you know that Tyler Seguin...

did have to learn to play clarinet because he was late in class?

was a pretty good Lacrosse-player?

was not expected to be a high draft-pick 1 ½ years before the draft?

was probably the most improved player in the last 18 months prior to his draft ?

father roomed at University with former NHL-scoring machine John LeClair?

did fall asleep during a Boston Bruins teammeeting?

was the “victim” of a funny but cheated picture in the Boston arena?

is interested in meeting Scotty Bowman, Wayne Gretzky and Barack Obama?

instead now has to be happy to meet  just Arno Del Curto, Reto Von Arx and Erich Fehr?

name is pronounced SAY-gun?

made me looking like a draft-genius when I drafted him 2009 in a Roto-League with a late-round-pick because after watching him in the Ivan Hlinka U18-tourney I thought he was vastly underrated?

made me looking like a trade-scapegoat because I traded him away for – with today’s eyes - not exactly very good value after he got chosen 2^nd overall in the NHL-draft and by then I thought he might be a bit overrated?

is in my eyes so far the most attractive lockout-player who signed in the Swiss league because he is a big part of the

NHL-future, a fresh face and Biel supporters will be proud for the next 10 years when they will watch him in the NHL

because there was a time, Tyler was one of their boys in Biel and not in Zurich, not in Lugano and not in Bern.

Tyler Seguin: great player, great entertainer, great move from Biel. Go to Biel and watch him playing!

Swiss Pro-League: Who is the tallest, heaviest, youngest team?

The tallest:

1. Geneva 185.26cm (average)

2. Biel 183.67

3. Davos 183.20

4. Zurich 183.17

5. Langnau 183.00

6. Kloten 182.72

7. Rapperswil 181.70

8. Bern 181.60

9. Ambri-Piotta 181.57

10. Zug 181.44

11. Fribourg 181.27

12. Lugano 181.04



The heaviest:

1. Geneva 89.42kg (average)

2. Langnau 88.64

3. Zurich 88.45

4. Bern 87.26

5. Kloten 87.00

6. Lugano 85.82

7. Rapperswil 85.74

8. Ambri-Piotta 85.63

9. Biel 85.52

10. Davos 85.33

11. Fribourg 85.13

12. Zug 85.00



The youngest:

1. Kloten 25.20years (average)

2. Davos 25.23

3. Zurich 25.28

4. Biel 25.56

5. Zug 25.62

6. Langnau 25.93

7. Geneva 26.10

8. Ambri-Piotta 26.70

9. Bern 27.18

10. Rapperswil 27.41

11. Fribourg 27.81

12. Lugano 27.86



Source: eliteprospects

Ralph Krueger, head-coach of the Edmonton Oilers, the biggest winner in hockey-summer 2012

Yes, there is the Minnesota Wild with their spectacular Suter/Parise-addition, yes there are the Edmonton Oilers with the combination of Yakupov and Schultz, yes there are a couple of teams who looked like picking really great at the draft-table. Yes, LA Kings managed to keep their core-competence and look like contenders again for the near future and yes, the combination of Crosby/Malkin must be frightening for all opponents in every game they face the Pens. And yes, I really believe that the Pens did also pretty well in the return on investment (Staal-trade) and they managed to draft a really promising young d-man. Yes, these are all summer-winners in my eyes. Back in Switzerland the ZSC-Lions managed to get the maybe best Swiss forward in Roman Wick – for free – this must be very strange for the North American and Russian Readers, yes they didn’t have to give something in return and he also doesn’t count against a salary-cap, because there isn’t such a thing, it was just a money-question. In Switzerland and most European leagues we don’t have a salary-cap, we don’t have a draft- or trade-system, it’s just money that talks. Boring compared to the more competitive North American rules who got adapted also from the KHL in the meantime. Back to the topic: All these winners in the summer-hockey-circus can’t compete with the biggest winner overall:

It’s the new head-coach of the Edmonton Oilers, Ralph Krueger. Why is that?

1  1. The Edmonton Oilers have a very exciting young team with some of the brightest talents in hockey (Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov plus they have Schultz/Musil/Pääjärvi and maybe even some more. They finished last or close to the bottom in the last couple of years but are already very close to success. This is the best situation for a new head-coach. He can lose nearly nothing but win everything and the chance for everything is pretty good because of the high-end-talent he can work with.

    2. Reading all the comments in North America about Ralph Krueger I’m very sure that he is underrated in the eyes of a lot of hockey-writers. And to be underrated is one of the best situations in terms of being successful in the future, in hockey, in sports and in life.

    3. Ralph Krueger is an excellent coach. Back in Switzerland he was very focused on results and in most years he overachieved with a team with limited skills. His game-strategies were not very spectacular but some of his results were. Ralph Krueger is a coach with a high intellect and he is very keen on hockey and also keen on learning, learning life-long. Although he owns a big self-confidence he also is modest enough to listen to all sort of hockey-people and picking brains from all over the world. He tries to eliminate unpredictable things with the focus on all details who can be controlled and prepared. He is very well organized, listens also to scientific findings and analyses and is a very good teacher for young players in the mental and tactical aspects. He owns a psychological degree and his motivational approach probably doesn’t really reach highly educated managers but for young hockey-players it will definitely work for a good period of time. He owns an excellent tactical knowledge and knows so much about hockey. This did, will and MUST impress players.

The combination of these three aspects makes Ralph Krueger the biggest winner in this summer-hockey. Very soon he will become one of the most respected NHL head-coaches, mark my words! And the Oilers have a bright near future!

Zurich, 7th July 2012 / Thomas Roost

Will Russia win in Sochi?

Russia is World Champion in 2012 and impressed us with spectacular plays and goals. The Russian players confirmed to be the most skilled with a high-end entertaining factor. Russia did win all games and dominated this tournament. I always admired their stylish style, their skills and their magic... and I still do. Russia has high-end forwards in their prime with Malkin, Ovechkin and still Datsyuk and will come along with high-end very young forwards (Kuznetsov, Tarasenko, Yakupov and maybe Grigorenko). What does this World Cup dominance tell us? Is Russia No.1 favorite for the next Olympics in Sochi? How good is the KHL? How healthy is Russian junior-hockey? What can we expect from this great hockey-country in the next couple of years?

What does this World Cup dominance tell us?

Russia still produces high-end individual players who can make the difference in tight games. When all these high-end players are healthy and available they have so much offensive skills to be able to destroy any defense. When these Russian superstar forwards are „hot“ they are extremely difficult to stop. Good news for Canada, USA, Sweden and others: They are not always „hot“. Not only we, especially also Russian people show sometimes mysterious personalities, they are sometimes moody. Means this is just mysterious for us in Western Europe and in North-America. We don’t and never will fully understand the deep Russian soul... and I know what I’m talking about. I’m married with a sweet Russian lady and to be honest: I didn’t find the last key to the Russian soul yet and I probably never will. I guess a lot of Russians themselves never find the last key to their soul also... and all these mysteries you can find sometimes with Russian hockeyplayers also on the ice. Even Switzerland can beat Russia on one of these strange Russian nights but at the same time Russia still could beat Switzerland 8-1 or so when they put the trigger to „on“ and play fully concentrated the whole 60minutes. Russia is the least predictable team in world-hockey, they are still good enough for the very best but also strange enough for really bad games.

Is Russia No.1 favorite for the Olympics in Sochi?

No, I don’t think so. This doesn’t mean that they don’t have a chance to win as I explained above, but in my eyes it’s rather unlikely. Reasons why: Russia doesn’t have high-end dmen and still lacks top level in the game without the puck. Not to forget the top-level competition they will face: Canada, USA and Sweden will also have unbelievable good teams playing in the Olympics. I guess Russia is on top together with Canada in terms of forwards (Malkin, Ovechkin, Datsyuk, Semin e.g.). These players are as good but not better than Crosby, Stamkos, Tavares, Giroux. In terms of defense in my eyes Canada, Sweden and USA are better, at least on paper.  Sweden and the US are not quite on the Russian forward-level but also not very far away. Both have the chance to beat Russia because of better defense. It’s unfair to tell that the Russian defense is not good, actually it is good but the question we have to answer here is: Are e.g. Nikulin/Kalinin as good as Weber/Pietrangelo or Karlsson/Lidstrom? We would make big mistakes to judge Russian opponents with what we have seen in the World Championship 2012. Canada, the USA and Sweden did invite more or less U25-teams and didn’t show up with their best possible players by far. Sweden e.g. faced 21! rejections from basically invited players. Putting all these “Olympic” puzzle-pieces together I would say Russia will be there as the most dangerous underdog but not as the favorite. I guess Canada will be favorite No.1, the US and Sweden are right there, just a bit below and Russia is the mystery with good outsider-chances. Also Russia has some additional potential super players (e.g. Kovalchuk) but by far not as many as Canada, the USA and also Sweden has. Russia was 90% complete with their “Olympic” roster in this year’s WC. Canada, Sweden and the USA were there just with about 50% at best of their final Olympic roster.

How good is the KHL?

The KHL is the second best league in the World and in the meantime a great alternative for good NHL-players, especially a very good negotiating asset if an average NHLer asks for more money. With a KHL-offer he – respectively his agent – can put pressure into the negotiating-process. In addition: What were the best recall-players in the past are well paid KHLers today. Dozens of really good Scandinavian players enrich the KHL. The KHL is trying very hard to close the gap to the NHL and the KHL has money. I don’t want to discuss whether this is healthy or not healthy money, this would lead to another dimension of the discussion. If you ask the players, a majority will tell that the KHL in many aspects is still quite far away from the NHL but the improvements are noticeable and fast. The KHL did copy a lot of the NHL-rules in terms of drafts and trades and is dynamically trying to expand into other European countries. There are some questionmarks in terms of basic stability. How strong are the economical and technical fundamentals of the KHL?

How healthy is Russian junior-hockey?

Russian junior-hockey is not as good as it was in their best years and decade. Since maybe two or three years Canada, the USA and Sweden did overtake the Russian U18- and U20-teams. However, Russia still is able to produce some major upsets from time to time but to tell the realistic and modest truth: Right now they are No.4 on a junior-level and lately also Finland makes pressure for this spot. I don’t have first-hand information but my second hand information also tell me that the relation between the KHL and the Russian Hockey Federation is not always easy and that the junior-programs suffer from this. I also notice some sort of small fight between the Russian transfer-rules and the junior-player-agents. Junior-players have to sign pretty early contracts what means they have to stay (too) long in Russia. Some players and their agents don’t agree with this formal chains and this leads to a “exodus” of very young players (age 14-17) to North America or other countries. I even had serious inquiries from Russian agents in terms of bringing very young Russian kids to Switzerland. Basically I still think they have excellent teachers of basic technical hockey-education but Russia is still on their sometimes painful way to settle down from the huge political change since the old Sowjet times and this change also effected and still effects the junior-hockey-program. In the meantime they seem to have the money to come back very strong. What is now still missing a little bit are stable structures, stable rules and a more relaxed and composed relation and empathy to the NHL and Western European countries. But they learn and they learn fast. Still…sometimes… the mystery of the Russian soul… Of course, it’s also the other way round. Also we have to improve our empathy to Russian souls and also we have to and do learn from them.

What can we expect from this great hockey-country in the next couple of years?

Surprises. Suprises for the good and bad, this is what I do expect in the near future from Russian hockey. They still have so many great offensive individual players with exceptional skills that on a given night they can beat anybody. But I judge them as not stable enough to also lose some very surprising games vs clear underdogs. The lack of high-end d-men, especially high-end defense d-men doesn’t help. As I mentioned before, the Russians still seem to have great teachers and coaches in terms of basic hockey-techniques (skating, skills). What is still lacking sometimes are high-end game-plans – because they might think that they will win with better skills anyway - , individual tactical skills and discipline in terms of playing more efficient without the puck, especially in the d-zone. Maybe they should put this on their priority-list in education-programs. Maybe these rather unspectacular skills fit better to Swiss or German mentalities, I don’t know this for sure. Again, the mystery of the Russian soul…Anyway: I’m looking forward to many more magic Russian hockey nights but to be honest: I also do expect a lot of tears.

Now I’m awaiting some interesting opinions about this analyses, maybe even from some of my friends in Russia?

22nd May 2012 /  Thomas Roost                                                                                  RussiaSochiMay12Neu1.doc