Swiss NHL players - what their early performances mean

At this point of every hockey-season - and in every league - the most judging mistakes are taken and this has some sort of logic: We desperately did wait for the beginning of the season. We did speculate, predict and judge but we didn’t have facts and figures. Then the season starts, we have some figures and now we get trapped with these early stats… because we don’t have others, we just have them… wait a minute… we also have historical figures and tend to forget about them. It’s a dangerous trap, judging the hockey-ongoing if you start to analyze after only a couple of weeks into the season. Just around 10% of the NHL-season is played and we already tend to “know” why the Habs, the Oilers, Detroit and Minnie are that good and why Dallas, Nashville, LA and the Ducks are so bad or rather bad. HUGE mistakes. We start to hype players because of two or three “given nights” and we point fingers to proven goal-scorers because they haven’t really scored yet. Rest assured that historical player-hockey-stats are a pretty consistent and reliable source for predicting the future. Stay patient, composed and relaxed, especially with younger players who scored 25-30 goals in recent seasons. As sure as day follows night their goals will come, don’t panic. Will the Oilers and the Habs keep their winning-pace? Of course not, they are definitely over-performing right now. Is Nashville and Dallas that bad?

No, of course not, they are just under-performing and will come along nicely. Every team has over-performing, normal performing and underperforming phases during a loooong season. If teams start with an under- or over-performing phase we tend to vastly overrate these results and the coaches of the under-performing teams are in danger, especially in the Swiss league… who – from an international observer point of view – has the reputation of being one of the most aggressive “coaching hire- and fire-leagues” worldwide… ;-)

So, coming to the point: What does all this mean for our Swiss NHL-players and especially for the rookies? It means not much for players like Josi, Niederreiter and Streit, our “proven commodities”, it’s more or less clear that Josi will slightly improve, Niederreiter is just on his expected pace and Streit is a bit over-performing at this point. In the case of Josi we can see that the basically overrated +/-stat is at this point of a season even vastly overrated, so just don’t even care a bit about +/- figures that early in a season… if at all…

Coming now finally to the real point of this column: What does all this mean for our Swiss NHL-rookies: On the contrary to what I did tell above their early season performances mean a lot and their according performances (watch their stats and ice-times) are worrying for Malgin and Bärtschi and also to a certain degree to Fiala and Bertschy. The big difference between to what I did tell about Josi and Niederreiter is there are no historical NHL-data existing about Malgin, Fiala and Bertschy… So, decision-takers will watch very carefully what they bring to the table early on in their careers, in their rookie-season and if they don’t score like Matthews, Nylander or Laine… don’t overrate the early praise of our young Swiss players. In addition nobody of our Swiss rookies is a top3-overall draftpick… well this is a very dangerous situation for them. Malgin’s stats and ice-time doesn’t indicate that he is not under high-pressure to produce very soon. To a certain extent this is also true for Kevin Fiala. They might have a bit more patience with him because he scored two goals in one game and was a pretty high draft-pick. What about Baertschi in Vancouver? He failed in Calgary, performed quite well early on in Vancouver but now has a really slow start into the new season. He is also in the danger-zone. Christophe Bertschy in Minnesota was close to make the team but got cut in the last minute because they hired Pulkkinen from waivers. Pulkkinen failed so far, was sent down to the minors but it was not Bertschy who succeeded in this scenario, it was Eriksson-Ek and he cashed in early on. So, this is also not a really promising scenario for Christophe Bertschy.

To make the long story short: The small early hype about Malgin and Fiala is fading away and this goes faster than what might be fair. Baertschi is on the verge of his NHL-career in these weeks to come. Andrighetto, Kukan, Vermin, Bertschy are in the minors. This is not the NHL-start of the season what we – from the Swiss point of view – did wish will happen. Reality is sometimes brutal and for lower tier rookies it takes sometimes two or three good or bad weeks what more or less decides about their future NHL-careers. It’s also reality that there are tons so similar quality prospects like the abovementioned who are waiting for their chances to shine and the one and the other will be lucky enough to succeed. So, yes, it’s time to worry from the Swiss point of view, today’s truth doesn’t look really bright but let’s stay optimistic: Today’s “truth” is not tomorrow’s truth and tomorrow’s truth is not the truth of the day after tomorrow. The future of most players is unpredictable to a certain extent, so let’s hope for the best and we all cross fingers for Andrighetto, Kukan, Malgin, Meier, Baertschi, Bertschy, Fiala and many more.

Horgen, 30th October 2016 / Thomas Roost          

Babcock, Del Curto, Rönnberg, Huras or Mr.Nobody? - How to choose a head coach

Whenever a team in Switzerland is looking for a new head coach, there is always a huge discussion about who should get this job. It seems like this decision would influence the club’s future more than the budget, the roster, and the (hopefully existing) basic club-philosophy. 

And that’s why I think that these discussions are a bit overrated. Digging a bit deeper, I notice that we have just a small number of Swiss coaches in our league. Definitely, a too small number of Swiss coaches when I consider the according theoretical probabilities in a professional evaluation. There seems to be some sort of weird aversion towards Swiss coaches. On the other hand, I also notice that some people believe having a Swiss passport should be one of the most important assets in the job profile.

I really have issues with the fact that we have just five out of 24 Swiss head-coaches in our two professional leagues. On the other hand, I have the same issue whenever I hear that being a Swiss citizen should be a “must have“ asset in a head coach's profile. I also notice that the Swiss leagues follow one of our society’s habits... we are “Recycling World Champions” and we also hold this title when it comes to recycling hockey-coaches. My respected Larry Huras and HC Fribourg-Gottéron may forgive me this hint ;-)

In professional international recruiting-processes, it has been a standard for ages that the personality and not the nationality should be important. The basics are, of course, professional knowledge and skills.

So what should we try to look for in a head coach? Trying to answer this question, I will ask more than 40 questions beforehand.

Shall we go with the most expensive coach on this planet, Mike Babcock, because there must be a reason why he is that expensive? Didn’t he win a lot of titles in the NHL and with the Canadian National Team? Does anybody really know more about hockey than him? But... did he ever win with a low- or at least average team roster? Could he find out and adapt to our players’ mentality? What about his player-development skills?

Ok, let’s turn the page: Arno Del Curto. Did any other coach stay with the same team for as long as he did? Does any other team play with such an attractive, fast style as Del Curto’s teams? Didn’t he win some championships? Isn’t he a media-darling which could include additional marketing potential? But... did he ever win with a low-budget team? How many overachieving seasons did he have with Davos? How many skaters who were coached by Del Curto are now NHL-players or "at least" star players in the Swiss national team? Is he maybe overrated? 

Thus far we have some positive and negative aspects of Babcock and Del Curto. Let’s move on to Roger Rönnberg. Isn’t he one of the builders of the highest respected Swedish development program? Is he not the one who successfully develops young players again and again? Isn’t he the one who made the proud and brave statement that Swedish players are more skilled and better educated than Canadians and that’s why he thinks that Sweden will likely beat Canada when the two teams face each other? Is this a bold and brave or a stupid, naïve, and arrogant statement? Is he the right coach for a professional team or maybe better suited as a sporting director or junior coach? 

Should there be a completely different profile for a coach of a professional team on the one hand and a junior coach on the other hand? Is a perfect bench-coach the one who tries to win the next games no matter what? And is a good junior coach just interested in improving the overall level of his players in the long-term and doesn’t care enough about winning or losing the next game?

What about Larry Huras? Didn’t he win championships with different teams? Isn’t he an attractive entertainer before, during, and after the games? Is it maybe true that he knows how to win championships? But... when did he win his last championship? What are his references with his recent teams in Switzerland, Germany, and Sweden? Isn’t he mainly just a „Ra-Ra-Rah-coach“ who is selling himself as something he is not? Does he really know how to win championships? Is there, at all, just one single human being on this planet who really knows how to win championships or isn’t this one of the weirdest “hockey-wisdoms”?

What about Mr. Nobody? Why are there countless examples in professional team sports when,out of emergency, a Mr. Nobody took over a spectacular pro-team and succeeded? Is Mr. Nobody not more motivated to do a great job and work harder because he knows: “This is my lifetime chance?” Isn’t it true that there are a lot of still unknown high-quality coaches in the world of hockey? Isn’t it true that players win games and coaches don’t? Isn’t it true that Mr. Nobody-coaches are on average significantly less expensive than “star-coaches” and wouldn’t it be more fruitful to spend this saved money for, for instance, a high-calibre import-player or other assets in the supporting cast? Does a famous coach really know how to win championships and a no-name coach doesn’t? Was not every “big-name-coach” a “no-name-coach” when he started his coaching career? But... do players trust a Mr. Nobody? Isn’t the pressure of the media more brutal to a Mr. Nobody if the team does not immediately do well? Do you sell enough tickets with a Mr. Nobody? Do you unnecessarily risk your job as sporting director if you hire a Mr. Nobody-bench coach?

With all my questions I just want to point to the fact that it’s not easy to choose the right coach. There are advantages and disadvantages in all scenarios, but, in the very end, you have to make a decision. I don’t want to leave you without presenting my personal opinion. But before I do so,  I want to let you know that, of course, all these decisions are always influenced by the context such as the current situation of a team (rebuild-process, contender, in danger to become relegated and so on). But basically, in the big picture, with the hat of a team president, a CEO or a sporting director on my head, I would act as follows in European leagues:

Hire a world-class coach for your development program, a real teacher who doesn’t need the media spotlight for his ego plus a more or less no-name bench coach for your pro-team with an additional smart assistant coach plus a bright, young, and enthusiastic analytic-head.

The junior coach could easily have the bigger salary than the no-name bench coach of the main team. I guess that, in the very end, the overall payroll wouldn’t be bigger than a team who hires a famous head coach.

To add some more questions:

Is this scenario just a naïve theoretical simulation? Or could it be the beginning of a new era? Do we maybe just need the one team who will be brave and innovative enough to break new ground? But… would it still be better to stay on proven paths and try to recycle Kent Ruhnke, Hans Zach, or Barry Melrose? We definitely have more questions than answers. Critical and smart brains should have more of these questions about life in general. Coming to an end, I really want to point out once again: To choose the one or the other coach should be always based on his personality and never his passport.

Thomas Roost / 11th October 2016